As the pandemic continues to have a long-lasting negative effect on all of our lives, the creative industries have bravely soldiered on in the past few years while government restrictions have threatened their very existence.
Before COVID-19 even reared its ugly, international head, cinema was in a precarious place when it came to theatre releases. The behemoth rise of streaming services has put pressure on exhibitors, as the average film fan would much rather watch a new release from the comfort of their own home than pay the ever-rising price of a cinema ticket.
When the pandemic arrived and confirmed itself as more than just a passing news story, many believed this would accelerate the oft-predicted death of the cinema. A massive dip in box-office takings seemed inevitable. Many studios decided to put out new releases on their respective streaming platforms, with Disney leading the way when Mulan premiered on Disney+. This was met with widespread anger from exhibitors, with this video of a French cinema owner destroying Mulan promotional artwork capturing the collective despair of the moment.
2020 suffered pretty horribly, with Deadline reporting that the annual global box-office number had dipped an estimated 71% to $12.4 billion. Hardly surprising, but still a massive blow to those in the industry. In the UK, this was no different. The Guardian reported that domestic cinemas earned £322.2 million in 2020, compared with £1.3 billion in 2019. Even Christopher Nolan, modern-day box-office king, couldn’t muster much with his latest release in Tenet, which grossed only $363.7 million worldwide from its $200 million budget. In comparison, his previous original sci-fi flick Interstellar grossed $701.8 million worldwide from a budget of $165 million in 2014.
After a disastrous 2020, cinema owners could only hope that 2021 would be an improvement. But would Covid restrictions allow it? And even if they did, would cinemagoers want to even brave returning to the theatre? Especially if they had gotten used to the ease of on-demand movies in the past few years. In the UK, cinemas didn’t re-open until May, so no one was quite sure what to expect when they were finally able to open their doors to the public once again.
The above graph charts the UK weekly box-office totals from both 2019 and 2021. 2019 is a useful year to for comparison, as it is the most recent box-office data which shows pre-pandemic figures. From May (where the graph starts) through until October, 2019 clearly had a more successful summer. Significant highs include the release of Aladdin on the 21st weekend, the release of Spider-Man: Far From Home on the 27th, and The Lion King on the 29th. It’s interesting to see that 2021 followed a similar trend of peaks and troughs, with 2021’s 25th weekend seeing a rise due to the release of Fast & Furious 9, and its 27th because of the release of Black Widow.
It isn’t until October 2021 that we see a massive rise from £5,097,724 on the 38th weekend to £28,348,103 on the 39th. The theatrical release of Daniel Craig’s final outing as James Bond in No Time to Die had been delayed by nearly two years by MGM and Eon Productions to get the biggest possible audience in the cinema. Their decision certainly paid off, with the spy thriller becoming the fourth highest-grossing film of 2021 by taking in $774,034,007 worldwide.
Up until this point, the graph shows that the UK box-office had clearly been underperforming when compared to pre-Covid times, but after Bond entered and saved the day, box-office takings haven’t been much different since before the pandemic. It’s promising stuff, and it shows that people will get up and go out to the cinema for a big new release. The only issue is—and it’s something we have been aware of for some time—that the box office is almost solely reliant on these massive tentpole event movies.
Looking at the peaks on the above graph, each coincides with the release of either nostalgia-fuelled re-hashes of childhood Disney films, or blockbuster entries in existing cinematic franchises (all made by Disney too, except for Fast & Furious 9). The largest peak on the graph at £34,709,243 is almost solely down to your friendly neighbourhood Spider-Man, with No Way Home having already swung its way into the top 10 highest-grossing movies of all time. No Way Home has that dual effect of both rubbing a nostalgic itch while also furthering the course of the biggest franchise on the planet. A winning cinematic formula in this day and age.
Ben Affleck recently stated in an Entertainment Weekly interview that he believes, “Movies in theaters are going to become more expensive, event-ized… And there’ll be 40 movies a year theatrically, probably, all IP, sequel, animated.” Looking at the current state of the UK box office, it’s hard to argue with him. Cinema veterans such as Martin Scorsese are against such developments, with his infamous “Marvel isn’t cinema” comment becoming a rallying cry for cinephiles to denigrate the cookie-cutter formula of blockbuster entertainment while championing auteur-driven original stories.
But would Affleck’s predictions be such a bad thing? Despite the ongoing effects of the pandemic, Spider-Man: No Way Home has still made over $1.5 billion, greatly helping the survival of exhibitors around the world. It’s these kinds of massive budget movies that people want to see on the big screen, and will happily go to their local cinema to do so. When it comes to original stories, television and streaming services have become a new haven and a respectable platform. Affleck comments on this as well, saying, “We were just talking about Narcos: Mexico, Succession, Mare of Easttown. There’s these amazing things being done on streamers. Roma! It’s not just some formulaic TV procedural like when we were kids.”
Whether streaming and television is the best place for filmmakers to thrive in the future is a different debate, but when looking at the performance of the UK box office in recent months, it is clear that things are nearly back to normal thanks to films such as No Time to Die, Dune and Spider-Man. The numbers back this up, with Deadline reporting that the worldwide box-office in 2021 was 78% higher than 2020, taking in an estimated $21.4 billion.
Rather than relying on consistent levels of cinema attendance every week, exhibitors will have to work around the release schedules of Marvel, Star Wars, Fast & Furious, and other dominant franchises to stay thriving in the face of this ongoing pandemic. Covid tried its best, but there was no way James Bond and Spider-Man were gonna let it kill cinema just yet.
Words by Cameron Blackshaw
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