The recent arrest of Nicola Sturgeon has shocked the political establishment and electorate and furthers the identity crisis facing the SNP, potentially setting the Scottish independence movement back decades.
Throughout history, single-issue parties have tended to face the same problem: aside from the single issue that unites its members, how does the party define and brand itself?
Regardless of your thoughts on Scottish independence, few would deny the political will and skill of former First Minister Nicola Sturgeon. As a charismatic and proactive leader, Sturgeon proved an exception to the rule, transcending the single issue and creating an identity and ideology for the SNP that went beyond independence and a need to create a Scotland able to stand on its own two feet. With the identity in recent years of the SNP so closely linked and defined by Sturgeon’s leadership, her resignation and subsequent arrest has left the SNP facing an important question: without Sturgeon who is the SNP? With no clear answer emerging and a growing scandal over finance embroiling the party’s members and Sturgeon herself, the future of the SNP appears precarious and the independence movement set back decades.
In her nine years as party leader, the left-leaning policies of Sturgeon re-defined and reclaimed the SNP’s identity away from Alex Salmond, appealing to the people of Scotland as a progressive party supportive of the masses. Her policies such as free bus travel for under 22s, increasing income tax for high earners and the introduction of baby boxes over time became focal points of the SNP manifesto and appealed to a wide electorate, swaying even those sceptical of independence towards the SNP. The popularity of this newly defined political party was made apparent in the 2015 General Election when the SNP went from holding six seats in the House of Commons to 56, ending 51 years of dominance by the Scottish Labour Party.
With Sturgeon’s leadership defining the SNP, her resignation has resulted in an identity crisis that new First Minister Humza Yousaf is struggling to reconcile. Whilst debates on the Gender Recognition Reform Act under Sturgeon revealed fissures within the party, it was the leadership contest that epitomised this identity crisis. The three candidates, Humza Yousaf, Kate Forbes and Ash Regan could not have been more ideologically different despite all sharing a uniting belief in independence. Kate Forbes for example, represented the socially conservative faction within the SNP, a world away from the left-leaning social policies of Sturgeon’s SNP such as the Gender Recognition Reform Act.
Despite the appointment of Humza Yousaf who was dubbed the continuity candidate, his lack of charisma and track record ladened with criticism during previous ministerial positions such as health, has meant that Yousaf has failed to create the same identity the SNP had under Sturgeon or define a new identity under his stewardship of the party. Furthermore, the clear lack of unifying ideology between the leadership candidates has arguably opened up a ‘Pandora’s Box’ of issues, revealing the lack of unity within the SNP and parity across issues that affect the people of Scotland. Without Sturgeon the SNP has no ideology beyond independence as party members grapple with their mission for the future and cannot agree on an identity or long-term strategy.
Increasingly, the SNP is also struggling to have independence to fall back on. Since the UK Supreme Court ruling in November last year in which the court ruled that the Scottish Parliament was not legally competent or entitled to hold a second referendum, the likelihood of an independent Scotland appears to be slipping away. Furthermore, the devolved powers of the Scottish Government have begun to come under question with the UK Government vetoing the Gender Recognition Reform Act under Section 35 of the Scotland Act 1998. Relations between Westminster and Holyrood appear ever more strained with the chance of independence ‘withering on the vine’.
Membership numbers revealed during the leadership contest further confirm this increasing loss of hope. SNP voters on independence fell considerably with membership falling from 119,000 in 2021 to 72,000 in 2023.
The arrest of Nicola Sturgeon only adds yet another nail in the coffin for the future of the SNP. Even if the investigation finds no wrongdoing, the legacy and identity of Sturgeon’s SNP brand has been tarnished irrevocably by the ongoing scandal. The fabric of the party was undermined and trust destroyed amongst a loyal following that felt Scottish independence was within their grasp. Yousaf will be left with no choice but to shift the party in a new direction. With no consensus on what that identity will be, each day that passes raises the same question – without Sturgeon, who is the SNP?
Words by Lucy Frewin
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