You’ve probably seen that one of Britain’s most unpopular cabinet ministers has resigned. In any other context, this could be seen as an inevitable culture clash between the older Conservatives, who traditionally focus more on austerity economics and free market liberalism and the younger Conservatives, who try to appeal to average voters by increasing their focus on social mobility and the NHS. However, in the context of the upcoming European referendum, the already violently polarised Conservatives have fallen into disarray, and seem to be on the brink of outright civil war. Every journalist and their dog has realised this. You’ve probably seen their thoughts in the papers, or online. Well, time to add another clown to the media circus, because here is our take on this comedy of errors:
Duncan Smith, when he resigned, blamed George Osborne for cutting too deep into welfare and for causing suffering to the disabled. Seemingly pure motivations. But when Osborne announced further cuts to welfare last year, IDS was seen punching the air in delight. I’m sure you’ve all seen the GIF. So why the sudden change of heart? Could it be perhaps that IDS has conflicting views on Europe with the party whip? Whatever, the reason, the timing is extremely inconvenient for the volatile Conservatives. While David Cameron has been able to keep ministers on a leash on several issues, the traditional Tory split over Europe still remains. The right of the party seems to have found their voices as of late, and the Michael Gove-led group of insurgents who have backed Brexit have received a lot of positive press. The polls remain tight, and a respected former leader attacking a key figure for the Remain campaign, Chancellor George Osborne, has rocked the boat considerably.
The nightmare scenario for David Cameron is IDS coming out for the Leave campaign and unveiling a group of old Tories willing to back him, swinging the momentum of the campaign considerably. The Leave spin doctors manage to convince pro-Tory media outlets, such as the Express and the Telegraph, as well as possibly The Sun, into backing Leave. Britain is forced out of Europe, and the SNP, after crushing the Unionist parties at the Holyrood elections on the 5th of May, demand a second independence referendum. If Cameron is not forced to resign after failing to keep Britain in Europe, his chances of fighting the SNP and winning in a referendum where everything looks to be going the Nationalists way are slim. However, this scenario is quite unlikely, as it would require most media outlets across the UK to back Brexit, which looks unlikely since many have already declared their intent to back the Remain campaign.
Back to the present. Many in the Remain campaign will be looking anxiously at the Conservatives. Certainly, the largest political party being so split and divisive is not good for the country, the Conservatives or the Remain campaign. It’s certainly not good that the Remain campaign is having to focus which elements of the Tories are with them, undecided, or with the Leave campaign. Corbyn’s Labour, however, looks at this with a smirk. It was not so long ago the Conservatives mocked Labour divisions and rebellion. With the tables turned, it seems to be Corbyn’s big chance to show that Labour can be united, and has nobody like Duncan Smith to potentially embarrass the leadership, especially not on a major issue such as a European election. Plus, as Labour knows all to well from its collapse in Scotland, leading a campaign many feel is built on fear will not make the Conservatives any more popular among the electorate, and may see an opposition chance to strike once the referendum is over and the Tories have exhausted themselves.
Like a pebble disrupting a lake, the resignation of Iain Duncan Smith could actually have a large and long-lasting impact on European and British politics. In the time since his resignation, Duncan Smith has managed to almost single-handedly sink George Osborne’s ambitions of being Prime Minister, which were already slim in a post-Gordon Brown Britain. Were Duncan Smith to come out for Leave, it could revitalise the campaign, which is currently limping along the political road. Then the sparks could (finally) start to fly in this torpid debate.
Words by Gabriel Rutherford