It’s that time of year to start discussing which films of 2021 might prevail and go on to win some big awards next year. As ever, the spotlight is on who might prevail in the most coveted categories of them all. So who exactly might be in the running?
Best Actor
Predicted Winner: Will Smith, King Richard
Outside Chance: Benedict Cumberbatch, The Power of the Dog
When the first reactions for King Richard were released, people showered Will Smith with praise and his name has been floating around in awards conversation ever since. It makes sense that he is the clear favourite. Not only is his performance truly wonderful, but he transforms himself into a real figure. His performance embodies Richard Williams.
Smith is a respected actor who many say has never got the love from awards shows he deserves. This year it’s a real possibility that he gets his overdue recognition. Looking at the way the film has been received as a whole, King Richard seems to be one of the few occasions where critics and audiences are united in praise. It is an uplifting crowd-pleaser that people love, and that certainly gives Smith the edge.
Smith’s biggest challenger seems to be Benedict Cumberbatch for his performance in Jane Campion’s The Power of the Dog. Cumberbatch’s performance as a sadistic farmer is remarkable. It’s the kind of performance that (deservedly) gets a lot of awards love. Cumberbatch is not a novice when it comes to being nominated for and winning big awards. The major judging panels clearly like him, so it’s a real possibility he could win some accolades.
Like King Richard, The Power of the Dog is being revered by critics as a technical marvel and his performance is right at the centre. This gives the edge needed to guarantee some nominations, and maybe even to bag a few wins.
Best Actress
Predicted Winner: Kristen Stewart, Spencer
Outside Chance: Jessica Chastain, The Eyes of Tammy Faye
Kristen Stewart’s performance as Diana Spencer in Pablo Larraín’s Spencer is one of the best performances of the year. She transforms herself into one of the most famous women in history flawlessly. No other performance quite reaches the same heights as her. It seems very safe to say that Stewart will have to clear some space for the many awards she may pick up.
However, Hollywood has usurped favourites at the last moment before, and someone else could yet swoop in. That person could well be Jessica Chastain in The Eyes of Tammy Faye, where Chastain plays televangelist Tammy Faye Baker. Chastain physically transforms herself for this role, caked in exquisite makeup to capture Baker’s look perfectly. The Eyes of Tammy Faye has seemingly performed better with audiences than Spencer, and you never really know which way award voters will swing; will they align more with the critics, or more with the audiences?
Spencer is an experimental unconventional biopic whereas The Eyes of Tammy Faye is more typical of what awards voters tend to go for. And as incredible as Stewart is, Chastain would be more than deserving. Her performance crosses genres as she goes from comedy to tragedy from scene to scene.
Best Director
Predicted Winner: Kenneth Branagh, Belfast
Outside Chance: Jane Campion, The Power of the Dog
Kenneth Branagh appears to be the one pulling ahead of the rest in the director category for his semi-autobiographical drama Belfast, particularly following the Golden Globe nominations. Branagh is an accomplished director. He is well respected among critics and award voters which, of course, helps his chances. Belfast is also such a personal film for Branagh, since it is in part the story of him growing up. It is arguably more director-driven than other films in conversation, which could push him from being a nominee to winning.
In 1994, Jane Campion became only the second woman ever nominated for an Academy Award or Golden Globe for Best Director for her film The Piano, but to many people’s outrage, she didn’t win. She is considered one of the greatest working directors, and someone who is long overdue recognition for her work. The Power of the Dog is not only a technical masterpiece with exquisite direction from Campion, but it’s also her much-anticipated return to feature-length directing after a decade-long hiatus. Having already won the Silver Lion for Directing at the Venice Film Festival, her chances are enhanced even more. Campion has, perhaps more than anyone, a lot of the most important thing needed to win a major award; hype. A lot of people want to see her take home the gold and it just might be enough.
A third honourable mention can go to Denis Villeneuve, who could yet take home Best Director wins ahead of both Branagh and Campion for the sheer technical achievement that is Dune.
Best Picture
Predicted Winner: Belfast
Outside Chance: King Richard
Best Picture is always difficult to predict. Right now however, it feels safe to say that Belfast will pick up at least a few wins in this category. Belfast will likely be winning either both or one of Best Director and Best Screenplay at most ceremonies, which give it a huge boost in the Best Picture category. Of the 93 Academy Award winners for Best Picture, for example, 67 have also won Best Director. It is also a feel-good crowd-pleaser that is also a critical hit from a well-respected figure in the industry. It deals with important themes and is a love letter to Branagh’s childhood, and it is the type of film that always does well with award bodies. Belfast is giving every indication that it is edging in front of the other nominees here.
King Richard, though, could go beyond its odds-on Best Actor win and be in the running for Best Picture. It is a very popular and uplifting sports biopic starring a very popular man in Hollywood as the lead. Also dealing with serious issues like racism and sexism, this would be a very worthy winner. King Richard has a lot of fans who will very much be rooting for it to get some big wins, and that could boost it above many other films.
However, being a sports biopic, King Richard would be an unconventional choice for Best Picture, and as such Belfast can remain the odds-on favourite for now. For King Richard to have a chance, it will need to win either Best Screenplay or Best Director at a number of awards ceremonies, which seems unlikely. But we won’t know for sure until all of those golden envelopes have been opened.
Words by Lewis Royle
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